Hanging up my boots...for now

What little I have had to contribute on this blog over the last 5 months is coming to an end....for now.

Many thanks to those who have made comments on my musings or just visited to see what I had to say and engaged in the debate. Much appreciated.

The usual challenges of life, family and work are needing more attention, so cheerio for now. May be back in the New Year.

Cruachan

Time out, back soon

Wrong candidate? probably
Wrong campaign? definitely
Wrong media? no change there
Wrong voters? neglected and misguided, but no fools
Wrong Union. that's a statement, not a question.

Last night will soon be a small footnote in electoral history, but there's no way to dress this up, it was a bad night for the SNP and a bad night for the people of Glasgow North East.

Still, tomorrow is another day.

Remember them

Will ye no' come back again?

So, I am thinking about my wee brother a lot at the moment. He and his partner are away off to the land of Oz for the next three years (or thirty, who knows?), flying into tomorrow.

Hope they find what they're looking for.

Catch your dreams before they slip away.

Rays of hope

Alex Plode, (Scotland in the Gloaming) reminds us that all will be well.

So, 2012 it is.

So, at their behind closed doors policy debate on the Referendum issue this weekend, the Liberal Democratic Party miss their chance to demonstrate that they are either of these things.

It gives Tavish Scott a greater grip of his Party in the short term, but surely at the cost of losing electoral support come the 2011 Scottish General Election.

http//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8336195.stm

Or should we expect a change of policy by 2011?

I wonder if, like Labour, the Lib Dems seem to be slowly moving towards a position of agreeing to a Referendum but only one initiated by the UK Government, with wording issued by Downing Street and when the recession is well and truly over? and definitely not one held on St Andrew's Day or Burns Night or any other "biased" occasion :)

While the UK parties dance on the head of a pin, the voters next Spring and in 2011 will take a view.

So, a Referendum in 2012 it is. We can wait. Its coming.

x

The sun also rises

Well, a great walk in sparkling sunshine with my significant other earlier today, but it was dark by 5.25pm and winter is officially upon us.

Time to remember the glories of an English Summer and a beautiful piece of music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpApgfdDq2A

Another fine mess

Tavish seems to have raised the stakes in daring his own party members to challenge his policy of rejecting calls for a Referendum




http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Scott-refuses-to-back-Salmond39s.5764167.jp

Scott said: "There is no way the Liberal Democrats will be voting for a referendum on independence two months before a general election. That is my idea of a very silly political campaign and one that Mr Salmond would be delighted with. I do not have any interest in playing his games.""I am not going to be the handmaiden of independence. I won't personally and I know all my colleagues won't," he added."I find it despairing about all this, that when the country has real economic difficulties, and I have tried to talk about the disastrous banking failures, instead we end up talking endlessly about the constitution. That is the wrong priority."


So, (subject to the Scottish Lib Dem's behind-closed-doors debate at their conference next weekend), the position of the Unionist parties to a Referendum are currently as follows:-

Iain Gray
No, well not yet.
Its a distraction during a recession.
Not with biased wording.
Not if the process is controlled by the Scottish Government.

Annabel Goldie
Absolutely not, no way.
An independence referendum is not on our agenda.

Tavish Scott
I will not be a handmaiden to independence.
Its a distraction in a recession.

"Tavish Scott's senior allies"
Never say never.
Not if its biased eg. being held on St Andrew's Day (my particular favourite)
Maybe in the longer term.

What a mess.

The desperation, the contradictions and the anti-democratic tendencies are there for all to see.

Confused.com

I am personally in favour of a straight yes/no question on independence, (and am happy to accept the Scottish Government's intended wording) but I have been wondering for a while what outcomes a multi-option referendum might give us..

Let's assume the following as one possible outcome in the consultative Referendum, whether in 2010 or 2011/12:-

45% vote for Independence

35% vote for Calman/Calman Plus

20% vote for No Change

This, and many other permutations, may show a strong call for independence, but a real mess could emerge.

Is the above a ringing endorsement for full negotiations on independence to begin, or focus be on a watered down version of Calman?

It may put a fair bit of pressure on a Cameron Government to do something but would give him a happily confused outcome to string out years of discussion and tinkering with the status quo.

or how about this?:-

32% vote for Independence

32% vote for Calman/Calman Plus

36% vote for No Change

what then? is this a clear mandate for change or a win for No Change?

of course, the following might be a happier picture:

51% vote for Independence

30% vote for Calman/Calman Plus

19% vote for No Change

I would still be happier with a straight choice of status quo or Independence.

Our own path

The First Minister's Conference speech in full here.

http://www.snp.org/node/15767

Well, the challenge has been laid out by Alex for the SNP membership and to the Unionist parties to have the courage of their convictions and allow the people of Scotland to have a say in the future of the country.

Its quite a thought that within just over 12 months, we will have had the Glasgow North East by-election, the UK General Election, and maybe, just maybe, an Independence Referendum.

Even more important than all of that, one of my daughters has a significant birthday today, big family meal to look forward to this afternoon, and the Autumn sun is shining.

Happy days :)

Brothers in Arms?

An independent Scotland would allow English military forces to be based north of the border after a UK split, says the SNP's defence spokesman.....

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/SNP-will-let-English-keep.5722650.jp

I seems to me that this is the latest in a planned series of policy announcements by the Scottish Government targetted at the undecided voters.

From shared embassies, to monetary/currency policy, to the "Social Union", to continuation of the Union of the Crowns and now to military bases in Scotland being shared by a post-independence Scottish Defence Force and an English/Welsh/NI Army. Happily the commitment to sending the Nuclear subs packing remains a core policy.

There are also still some serious questions about ongoing membership of NATO (or not) to be clarified.

All good sensible stuff, but I just wonder whether too many hostages to fortune are being given in the tactics of reassuring the 25% "don't knows"?

Hung out to dry

Alex Salmond interview with the Daily Telgraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6282367/Alex-Salmond-Parliament-will-be-hung-by-a-Scottish-rope-after-election.html

Mr Salmond said: “There’s a vast, overwhelming majority of people in Scotland, regardless of political preference, who rather like the idea of the Westminster parliament being hung by a Scottish rope.
“I don’t think a Tory majority is a shoo-in by any means. I think a hung parliament or a balanced parliament of some kind is still more than an arithmetic possibility. It’s a strong possibility".

Personally I don't disagree with his analysis, but I think I preferred the previous analogy of "dancing to a Scottish Jig".

Not sure if the Telegraph has much of a circulation north of the Border but given the SNP electoral strategy has to be focussed on the floating/undecided voters, more careful language might be wise.

People tend to prefer dancing over murder :)

If the SNP achieve anywhere near the target of 20 Westminster seats next year, that would be a Big Moment, but would Cameron not be more likely to turn to the Ulster Unionsts in a hung-Parliament scenario before getting into bed with "narrow minded separatists"?

So, the Scottish Sun makes its choice....

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2665154/David-Cameron-My-promise-to-Scotland.html

(The Conservative leader knows he has got a mountain to climb to win the trust of Scots.
But he pledged: "This is my guarantee - a Conservative government in Westminster would govern Scotland with the respect it deserves." )

i.e. we will still govern you.

Dave says he will come to Holyrood every year to tell the Scottish Parliament how much pocket money they are allowed to spend and how important the Union is.

Flowing from the various events and commitments made in the last few weeks during the UK parties' conferences (and we've still got a week of the Tories to go), we could be in for one, two or no referenda next year.

Scenario 1
Czech Republic 's constitutional court does not allow the Lisbon Treaty to be ratified, Cameron wins UK election, calls a UK referendum on the Treaty.

Scottish Government somehow gets the Referendum Bill through Holyrood next year and the Independence Referendum takes place (and we win!)

Scenario 2

Labour form a Government after UK General Election (whether in majority, minority or coalition) and hold a Referendum on Electoral Reform Independence Bill voted down in Holyrood.

Scenario 3

As scenario 2, with Scottish Independence Referendum taking place.

Scenario 4

Lisbon Treaty is ratified across Europe by time Cameron is in No. 10.

No vote on Electoral Reform

No Independence Referendum

.....and any other variation I can't spot this Sunday morning.